Logistics crisis / La crisi della logistica

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The road transport sector keeps on suffering from the economic crisis.
Light commercial vehicles deliveries in Italy reflect and show the crisis trend…

http://www.en.anfia.it/download.php?id=1140

http://it.reuters.com/article/italianNews/idITL722226420090907
Some data catch the eye: FIAT and IVECO collected a -34% and -43% drop in August. Where is the omnipotent Marchionne? On holiday, perhaps…

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The following report (issued on 15th April 2009) is significant as it explains how the economic crisis, just for the road haulage sector but for any other sector as well, is not a ghost who unexpectedly appears and disappears, as some cheaters are telling around …

http://ec.europa.eu/transport/road/haulage/doc/2009_crisis_impact.pdf

Two basic concepts stand out in the report:
a) the first sector of transport to feel the crisis is that of freight, which is more directly linked to economic activity and trade than passenger transport (page 1, point 2);
b) the first two months of 2009 show a strong drop if compared with 2008 and the authors’forecasts for the rest of 2009 are pessimistic (page 3, point 9).
Five months have gone since the report was issued and the latest available data, as shown by the above referenced sources, look aligned with those forecasts…
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Anche i trasporti via terra continuano ad accusare la crisi.
Il trend nelle vendite dei veicoli commerciali in Italia ne è la diretta conseguenza e un chiaro segnale...

http://www.en.anfia.it/download.php?id=1140
http://it.reuters.com/article/italianNews/idITL722226420090907
Salta all'occhio il crollo di FIAT e IVECO: -34% e -43% ad agosto. Dov'è finito l'onnipotente Marchionne? In ferie, qualcuno dirà...
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Interessante il report seguente (datato 15 aprile 2009), dal quale si comprende che la crisi, anche nel settore del trasporto su strada, non è uno spettro che appare all'improvviso e altrettanto improvvisamente scompare, come qualche imbolatore vorrebbe far credere...
http://ec.europa.eu/transport/road/haulage/doc/2009_crisis_impact.pdf

Il report mette in evidenza, in particolare, due concetti importanti:

a) il comparto più sensibile alla crisi è quello del trasporto merci, che ne risente prima del comparto autoveicoli per trasporto passeggeri (pag. 1 punto 2);

b) i dati dei primi mesi del 2009 sono alquanto negativi e le previsioni degli autori sono pessimistiche per il resto del 2009 (pag. 3, punto 9).

Si tratta di previsioni fatte ad aprile scorso ma per niente smentite dai dati sulle vendite di veicoli commerciali di questi ultimi mesi ...

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Aggiornamento del 26 novembre 2009: il trend non cambia...

Reuters riporta i dati diffusi da ACEA (Association des Constructeurs Européens d'Automobiles) a livello europeo, per i veicoli commerciali pesanti e leggeri, mese di ottobre :

http://borsaitaliana.it.reuters.com/article/foreignNews/idITGEE5AO09K20091125

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FDIC: Failed Bank List - Update: 05 September 2009

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http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
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From 23rd August to 5th September 2009, eight more U.S. banks were added to the list:

• three banks were closed in Maryland, Minnesota and California on friday 28th August;
• five banks were closed in Missouri, Illinois, Iowa and Arizona on friday 4th September (last night).

On 5th September 2009, 89 is the total number of failed banks since the beginning of 2009.

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Dal 23 agosto al 5 settembre 2009, altre 8 banche fallite e chiuse negli USA:

• n° 3 banche, venerdì 28 agosto, negli Stati del Maryland, Minnesota e California;
• n° 5 banche, venerdì 04 settembre (la notte scorsa), negli Stati del Missouri, Illinois, Iowa e Arizona.

Il totale, aggiornato al 5 settembre 2009, fa 89 da inizio anno...

Freight Traffic Slump / Crollano i traffici

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Less than a month ago we read some news about the Baltic Dry Index, the universally recognized bulk freight indicator for raw materials (coal, iron ore, fertilizers, etc.), wheat and other cereal grain shipment. The BDI recently slumped again owing to the international commerce slowing down and the persistent economic crisis …

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOkYkh3CsUFg

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There is something that catches the observer’s eye watching at the Voltri Container Terminal Europa (Genoa-Italy, routes from/to Far and Middle East and Americas): no container ships at the quays today. Full traffic times, with ships waiting their turn outside the harbour, seem over…

VTE - Voltri Terminal Europa (Genoa), September 04th, 2009

--

The following trend looks confirmed:

Container shipping charter rates

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E' di qualche settimana fa la notizia del nuovo preoccupante ribasso del Baltic Dry Index, indicatore, universalmente riconosciuto, dell'andamento dei noli marittimi per il trasporto di rinfuse secche (minerali ferrosi, carbone, fertilizzanti, granaglie, ecc.). Al trend di questo indice corrisponde, in misura grosso modo proporzionale, l'evolversi del relativo commercio internazionale, secondo la legge della domanda e dell'offerta, alla quale i noli si adeguano...

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/SoleOnLine4/Finanza%20e%20Mercati/2009/08/commercio_Baltic_dry_cina.shtml?uuid=6a1f723a-8d7f-11de-8b52-a5cd18463745&DocRulesView=Libero&fromSearch

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In questi ultimi giorni salta all'occhio, per chi ce l'ha in vista, anche il vuoto di portacontainer al Voltri Terminal Europa (rotte da e per l'Oriente e le Americhe) : sembrano tramontati i tempi che, alle tre grandi navi attraccate ai moli, se ne aggiungevano altre in attesa, all'ancora in rada... Sono tre giorni che non se ne vede l'ombra, nemmeno spaziando fino alla linea dell'orizzonte...

Anche a Calata Sanità e Calata Bettòlo, da anni adibite al traffico intercontinentale di container nel tradizionale bacino portuale di Genova, lo si vede percorrendo la Strada Sopraelevata, la musica non è granché diversa...

Niente di più che riscontri sul campo di quello che è l'andamento dei noli (in US$/giorno), e quindi dei traffici, per navi portacontainer secondo il grafico sopra riportato...

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Most voted comment / Commento più votato

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Marketwatch submits each article to the readers’comment. Each comment is then submitted to the readers’vote. Such a criterion helps to know the readers’prevalent opinion on the subject. With an acceptable approximation, the prevalent opinion should be expressed by the most voted comment. This one can become more significant than the article, notably when it doesn’t agree with the article content… Anyway, a strong appreciation to Marketwatch's approach must be acknowledged.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-tale-of-two-or-a-million-economies-2009-08-31 (by Rex Nutting)
Most voted comment full text:
“Rex,
How can you expect the American consumer to spend in a time like this? Of course the consumer and worker are missing from the "party." Half a million people are losing their jobs every month, businesses are reducing overhead cost, and millions more are struggling to keep up with mounting bills. Millions more fortunate enough to see have a job are underemployed (making less money), I know many businesses in the Tampa area that had to take 20% pay-cuts just to stay alive. I finally feel that people are actually placing real needs over wants. For far too long this nation has been run on the "I need to right now!" mentality. To think that housing values have stabilized and everything is getting back on track is premature.

Overall household debt in the United States has far outpaced the growth of real disposable income and real household wealth. Trading fiat paper certificates on the stock market on Fraud Street is not real wealth it is phony wealth. Millions who were in 401k's have lost half their investments because they were asleep at the wheel. Much of the run up in household debt was mortgage-related. Low interest rates, weak lending standards, failure to put up adequate collateral, and the explosion of mortgages for lifelong renters were drivers in the housing bubble.

So, the ongoing fiasco in both housing and employment will continue. Millions are set to use up the last of their unemployment benefits and they will have absolutely no source of income. They will no longer be included as "unemployed" so it will portray a false sense of the economy getting better. Artificial stimulus of consumption has not and cannot generate or guarantee sustainable growth. Essentially, we are only rewarding failure. We have created an incentive for the “too big to fail” to take more risk because they know taxpayers will backstop them. The only businesses that have benefited from the government intervention are the banks, insurance companies, and every other criminal run company. There has been no help to the small business sector. People are tired of being lied to, tired of being stepped on and kicked to the curb.

Under the Obama Administration we have seen the federal deficit explode with no signs of slowing down. Just remember there comes a time when past borrowings have to be paid for. We have consumed far more than we have produced and shipped all our manufacturing jobs overseas. So the notion that we will recover without adding a single job in the private sector is a joke. The government's approach to the recession has largely been an attempt to use hard times as a cover for the establishment of a government power position in private industry. The stimulus program was a fraud from the beginning, an attempt to give a respected title to a spending splurge. We are not out of the woods yet.” [Author's nickname: ImpendingDoom]

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Marketwatch: il criterio di sottoporre al giudizio dei lettori non soltanto l’articolo di riferimento ma anche gli stessi commenti dei lettori, consente di conoscere l’opinione prevalente sull’argomento trattato. Con una accettabile approssimazione, penso si possa ritenere che l’opinione prevalente dei lettori sia quella espressa dal commento più votato. Quest’ultimo, specie quando non collima con il contenuto dell’articolo, senza nulla togliere al giornalista che lo ha scritto, diventa più significativo dell’articolo stesso…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-tale-of-two-or-a-million-economies-2009-08-31 (Autore: Rex Nutting)
Per questo articolo, il testo originale integrale del commento più votato è riportato sopra, nella versione in inglese.

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If this is the Federal Reserve... / Se questa è la Federal Reserve...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dismantle-bernankes-happy-conspiracy-now-2009-08-25
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... get ready for the worst, also because the "World Financial System" is aligned and no significant dissonance among its honored members is ever noticed, as a simphonic orchestra which responds to an unique Venerable Maestro or just as the "Onorata Società" demands...
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... prepariamoci al peggio, anche perchè il "Sistema Finanziario Globale" è perfettamente allineato e non si notano dissonanze significative tra i diversi onorati membri componenti, come un'orchestra sinfonica diretta da un unico Maestro Venerabile o come esige l'Onorata Società...
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US Failed Bank DOUBLE LIST / DOPPIA LISTA

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Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) on Friday 21st announced four more bank failures, pushing this year's total number of failed banks up to 81.

The latest one is Guaranty Bank of Austin (Texas) with total assets of about $13 billion, which joins list of biggest U.S. bank failures of all time...

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/three-more-bank-failures-as-tally-reaches-80-2009-08-21 - Here is the most voted comment to this article, which reminds another, much, much heavier list...:

"Take that stupid list off, cause here is the truth:
September 15th 2008:
Citibank Failed
BofA Failed
JP Morgan Failed
Washington Mutual Failed
Wachovia Failed
Wells Fargo Failed
Goldman Sachs Failed
Merrill Lynch Failed,
Morgan Stanley Failed,....
Lehman was the Smallest Failure of the day.
I was there, Where you?
Do NOT bs me, Do NOT re-write history".

[Author's nickname: JohnnyCreepy]
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No comment
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La Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), la sera di venerdì 21 agosto, ha annunciato il fallimento di altre 4 banche, portando a 81 il numero totale di banche fallite da inizio 2009.
L’ultima in ordine di tempo è la Guaranty Bank of Austin (Texas) che, con total assets pari a circa $ 13 miliardi, entra nel novero dei più grandi fallimenti bancari di tutti i tempi…
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/three-more-bank-failures-as-tally-reaches-80-2009-08-21 - Il commento (a questo articolo) più votato dai lettori, riportato sopra in versione originale inglese, fa un’altra lista, di gran lunga più pesante…
No Comment

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Bernanke & Friends saved the world... / Bernanke & Friends salvatori del mondo...

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"We saved the world from disaster...", seems to be the sense of Fed Bernanke's speech in Kansas City...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-saved-the-world-from-disaster-bernanke-says-2009-08-21-10100

More than 1900 expressions of gratitude and thanks by readers follow this article...

Here is the most voted one: "I wish these modern day robber barons would stop patting themselves on the back for averting the crisis. These f****** people CAUSED IT TO BEGIN WITH" [Author's nickname: alexwinter666]

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"Abbiamo salvato il mondo dal disastro...", pare essere il senso dell'esternazione di Fed Bernanke a Kansas City...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-saved-the-world-from-disaster-bernanke-says-2009-08-21-10100

Seguono più di 1900 espressioni di gratitudine e ringraziamento da parte dei lettori...

La più votata è riportata sopra, in versione originale inglese...

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- The recovery begins

- How many rounds yet?

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