venerdì 7 settembre 2012

Save the Euro or save the Eurozone's integrity?

Here's the dilemma...

(English version of... 
Salvare l'Euro o salvare l'integrità dell'Eurozona?)

Saving the Euro is not equivalent (<≠>) to saving countries in the EU that are on the verge of defaulting. It's (almost) like saying that saving these countries does not imply (≠>) saving the Euro.
This is exactly what the game being played is based on, and its main themes are uncertainty and risk.

Saving the Euro might also mean leaving certain crumbling, unrecoverable countries to their fate. But this would not be without consequence for the Euro, as it would involve a severe indirect backlash, due to the sovereign debt that would no longer be honored. Like rescuing a gravely injured soldier or a wounded hostage. It's still a rescue, some might say.

On the other hand, something (maybe) more predictable is foreseeable with the other option: if the indebted countries were to be saved, the Euro would sink due to its heavy devaluation, with the ECB and various state-saving funds to collapse under the weight of an overwhelming accumulation of junk bonds. Whether it is really a rescue is a question of opinion. And the option that isn't appetizing for more balanced countries (those in the north), for obvious reasons. Countries like Italy before the Euro, that instead always fit well together.  But those were different times, and more importantly, third party countries weren't involved.

At this point some might say that there is middle ground between the two extreme solutions. Hybrid solutions, like that of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds...

ome gamblers don't have doubts about the possibility of having your cake and eating it too.
We'll see how.
No matter how things go, it's sure that more than one of the parties at stake, whether it be a currency or country, will end up injured.

It goes without saying that, gambling with bluffs is making the headlines at the moment. It's a collective, coordinated bluff - almost obsessive.
What else is there to say, apart from "fear is an ugly beast," especially for the world that has made gambling a life tool (even if only for survival).
But from here to picking the low-hanging fruit from the vine, there is a long way to go: other players, probably more professional (and that cheat less), will make life hard at the card table ... to those that have everything to lose if things do not go as planned. 

[Reflections and deductions following the post entitled '
Draghi, don't fall for the trick!'  and the post entitled 'The Eurozone towards 'Laissez-faire'...']

September 07, 2012 Update
'Mario Draghi rescue plan with more misery at its core will not save euro'...

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