domenica 22 febbraio 2009

Evoluzione possibile, versione horror

Ho dedicato quest’ultimo fine settimana all’argomento del mio precedente post.
Combinazione, sabato scorso su Marketwatch è stato pubblicato l’articolo Stocks at the mercy of nationalization debate. Parendomi in sintonia con il tema dell’articolo, ho calato il mio post nel calderone dei commenti.
Riporto in sintesi (con l’omissione di qualche intervento non significativo) le reazioni che ha provocato (in parentesi i nickname di ciascuno):

The masked guest.
A potential guest is wandering around the scene of the global financial and economic dislocation. If it enters the banquet, it will leave only bones… Lately it is quite unperceived as it wears a mask: the oil low cost one… I want neither to name nor to describe it. Neither I want to evoke it at all. But, I’m afraid, it must be tacitly evoked and provoked by the financial global alchemists, due to the stench coming from the private toxic assets turned into public debts and the exponential increasing of the public deficits…
As usual, I apologize for my English.

Your english was perfect, bordering on eloquent. It is your train of thought that has my mind wandering around your comment. Your writing wears a mask in that I can neither name, describe nor perceive it. I'm afraid however if I dig too deep I may tacitly evoke or possibly even provoke the ever exponentially increasing intellectual deficits which so often plague Market Watch articles and the corresponding commentary pages. I'm curious Silvano... You didn't, perchance, learn to speak english by watching Allen Greenspan's various congressional testimonies over, and over, and over again? Did you?? As usual, I apologize for my sarcasm. It is after all my native tongue...

>>You didn't, perchance, learn to speak english by watching Allen Greenspan's various congressional testimonies over, and over, and over again?
FUNNY!! Unfortunately, this comment is only funny in context. (But, MAYBE I can find a way to repeat it). Well said and potentially true. I have a friend (Cambodian) who claims to have learned English by watching Howard Cosell on Monday Night Football. Too funny.

First of all I must apologize again:
> for my delay: last night, after my post, I went to bed (I'm writing from Genoa-Italy and I didn't expect any comment to mine);
> for my way of writing...(Wall Street Institute some years ago and ... vocabulary, to translate from my mother tongue something I had written two days ago).
So I must thank Allthatglitters for his interest and comment which I have really appreciated. Thanks to gf and cbrealtor too.
What did I want to say with my hermetic comment? That they can't expect to turn mountains of private toxic assets into public debts, with an exponential increasing of the public deficits, without the actual risk of a scary inflation and strong depreciation of the paper currencies (if I'm not wrong, something like that has happened already in the past: for extreme instance, Weimar teaches...).
But I really hope in a less dramatic development of the events...

Which Wall Street Institution did you work, or write, for? You are quite correct in your estimation that hyperinflation is the end result of the actions taken by the Fed, Treasury, executive and congressional branches. Very few here understand that a deep deflationary event is always the prerequisite for a hyperinflationary monetary event. The inflation most Americans have become accustomed to, (unfortunately since inflation is the most damaging yet stealth form of wealth confiscation, or if you will taxation, that government has ever created) is bubble inflation were their currency is devalued but assets priced in that currency rise in value at a rate which meets or exceeds the rate of currency depreciation or inflation. Hyperinflation is solely a monetary event wereby the increase in the money supply depreciates the value of the currency at such a rate that, although asset values may rise sharply, the purchasing power of the debased currency is exponetially weakened over time until a full blown currency collapse occurs. The end result of a hyperinflationary event is always the very worst of both worlds. You have increasingly stiffled economic activity as business transactions become more and more difficult to conduct as pricing mechanisms are rapidly made obsolete. You also have consumers desperate to spend any money in hand on any tangible asset available in order to minimize the inevitable lose of purchasing power that even very short periods of time (first measured in months, then weeks, days and finally just before complete breakdown, hours) inflict upon the consumer. This last condition, while it may sound like a retailers dream in today's economic environment, actually is a nightmare as saving, budgeting, even short term planning become an impossibility for all consumers. Think of all the bad decisions consumers made in the previous bubbles when easy credit ran like a river. Now imagine these same consumers who now have proverbial guns to their heads and ABSOLUTELY MUST, AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE, spend everything they earn the minute they receive payments. Can you conceptualize how utterly p*** poor their collective decisions will be in a marketplace such as that described above? Hyperinflation produces EXTREME economic dislocations which cripple economic activity as much as, or even more than, wars, epidemics and/or natural disasters. The vast majority of Americans, and readers here I might add, simply can not fathom how credit can be restored in an economy contracting as rapidly as the one they now currently are suffering in. They don't understand what quantitative easing is and they don't understand that central banks can create money at will and have always been able to ram money down lending institutions collective throats in whatever amounts they desire and at the time of their choosing. Why have they been waiting to do this and how much longer until the massive, unprecidented increase in the money supply that currently sits sequestered and idle in various forms is unleashed into the system? I am not smart enough and/or informed enough to answer these questions. If I had that information and the intellect and experience to use it to achieve short term gains by zigging while the bankers zag I would. Since that is not the case I am making the only long term play that makes sense.... I hold physical precious metals.

I am sorry to disappoint you but "The Wall Street Institute", here in Italy, is simply a school of English. So my financial and economic background and experience perhaps are not the ones you imagine. I am a technician in the field of environment. Nevertheless, I try to do my best and to use my brain also when I face economic and financial matters... This is my passion, also justified as I'm trying not to lose what I have invested (not much indeed). I have read your post and, due to my language problems, I need to read it again and more carefully. At first sight, in my modest opinion, it contains basic concepts which should be shared by everybody... On my part, I am really satisfied to have had your exhaustive point of view, as also here in Italy very few people, among the professional and experienced ones, are aware of the very probable evolution of the events or, perhaps, those who know don't tell it around...

Chi volesse riscontrare quanto sopra sul sito Marketwatch, lo trova a metà pagina circa del link seguente:

Cosa c’e di rilevante e al tempo stesso di inquietante in tutta questa manfrina? Ovviamente quello che scrive Allthatglitters nel suo intervento più lungo (nemmeno tanto facile a capirsi ad una prima lettura e nel dettaglio, almeno per uno come me) …
Non mi piacciono le vicende horror. Preferisco situazioni rilassanti. Speriamo di non dover convivere con una tale evoluzione e, men che mai, combattere dal vivo una battaglia per la sopravvivenza forse persa in partenza...

Nessun commento: