Oro pro, oro contro

E’ l’ora delle commodities, degli hard assets o che dir si voglia, ORO in testa.
I più lo esaltano come l’investimento del momento. Ma non manca qualche bastian contrario…

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-gold-bugs-taking-gold-mainstream-2009-11-23

Gli autori dell’articolo e i personaggi che citano ne dicono quasi tutti un gran bene, e il grosso dei lettori si uniforma… Ma, tra questi ultimi, c’è tale AmericanPatroit che, noncurante di viaggiare controcorrente e di tutti i voti negativi che gli vengono appioppati, ha continuato imperterrito ad esporre le sue ragioni per tutto il periodo che l’articolo è stato oggetto di commenti. A dire il vero, ho avuto l’impressione che il “pollice verso” dei lettori andasse calando di numero strada facendo…
Troppo banale accodarsi ai più. Per cui, con mezz’ora d’impegno, ho copiato su foglio Word i suoi post più significativi: ne viene fuori una sequenza di concetti di tutto rispetto (anche se magari ripetuti più di una volta). Il personaggio è tutt’altro che uno sprovveduto, anzi dimostra notevole preparazione (e determinazione). Difficile però dire, almeno per me, se è dalla parte della ragione o del torto.
Siccome non vorrei essere scorretto nei suoi confronti e nei confronti di Marketwatch ometto di inserire in questo mio post il testo che ho assemblato, operazione peraltro facilmente ripetibile da ciascuno.
Riporto solo qualche passo tra i più significativi dei suoi interventi:
- Gold plunged massively from January 1980 when it hit a high of $850 and then it plunged all the way down over the next 22 years to $250 per ounce in 2001;
- Gold is a volatile and dangerous commodity and can burn speculators very badly as we have clearly seen in the past;
- Jewellery demand has fallen by a third from levels a year earlier, with India – traditionally the largest consumer of gold – Russia and Turkey showing declines of between 42% and 55%;
- Current demand for gold is coming almost completely from speculators in the futures markets at this stage and we all know what happened to the price of oil when that same situation occurred in 2008: the price of oil soared to $147 and then collapsed in a mere few months to $34 per barrel when there were no more greater fools to take over the contracts;
- It is just another metal out of many metals and the current very low demand situation for gold practically guarantees a major fall in its price very soon;
- We are still not at the end of the artificial commodities and equities bubble that has been blown with loose money policies, however, which is why we are seeing the current prices in commodities and equities. Once those bubbles deflate most others should also deflate and governments will have to start cutting costs as the entire economy deflates;
- Gold is much more likely to come back to $800 to $850 an ounce by the end of this year and then head lower in 2010. An increase number of analysts are of this opinion along with myself and it is very clear after the report from the World Gold Council this weekend that demand for gold has plunged worldwide compared to last year;
- The transfer of the 200 tonnes from the IMF to the Central Bank of India had no net effect whatsoever on central bank reserve holdings and absolutely zero effect on the gold market. All it did was move that exact amount from IMF books to Central Bank of India books with the end result being that the total global central bank holdings of gold were absolutely unchanged. Why would you think that would have any significant whatsoever? It's not as if that 200 tonnes was taken out of actual current global supply in the gold markets, which would have a marginal affect on the amount of gold currently available. This transfer had no such affect at all. This was a pure zero-sum transfer;
- The Federal Reserve couldn't care less what the price of gold is at all. It's not a significant asset class of any sort and it has no affect whatsoever on the big picture economy, although the preposterously high prices of gold are causing significant damage to sales in the jewelry industry where demand has plunged;
- It is just amazing how people never learn the lessons of history. Gold took 29 years to recover to its level of $850 where it was in January 1980 and silver never came anywhere near its 1980 high;
- Very little US currency in circulation today is paper at all. Money today is electronic. Only around $800 billion even exists in paper US currency, compared to around $12 trillion of currency held electronically. Most all transactions today are electronic and have nothing to do with paper and that is the way it will continue to be for the foreseeable future. That's also one of the reasons why gold has absolutely no currency role to play whatsoever in today's modern electronic currency economy.
Tralascio la Tulip Mania che richiama per fare un parallelo con quella che lui definisce la Gold Mania, così come altri suoi post…
Nessun commento da parte mia. La fine di quest’anno è vicina così come il 2010. Vedremo se ha ragione o meno...
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Aggiornamento del 26 aprile 2010:

La previsione di AmericanPatriot, di un ribasso dell'oro a 850 $/oncia, non pare affatto sul punto di avverarsi...

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